China ’s Tiangong-1 space station is due torus - infix the atmospherein the fare weeks in what is likely an uncontrolled descent , but where could it land – and will anything make it to the ground ?
Tiangong-1 is currently dropping at a pace of 6 kilometers ( 3.7 statute mile ) a week from its orbital altitude of around 280 kilometers ( 175 Admiralty mile ) . prevision at the moment suggest it will probably re - enter the atmosphere at some breaker point betweenMarch 29 and April 9 .
The cranial orbit of the station takes it between latitudes of 42.8 ° N and 42.8 ° S. This takes it as far North as the US , Spain , and China , and as far South as Brazil , Australia , and South Africa . It definitely wo n’t land outside those zones , so places like the UK are safe .
However , as wedon’t knowexactly when the space station will re - enter , it ’s impossible to know on the button where it might fall . We might not know until just hour before re - submission where it is go to come down .
What ’s more , the space station is n’t that big – so it ’s unclear how much of it , if any , will make it to the flat coat . The diagram below indicate the possible places in green that the station could set down . Those in yellow are at the highest risk of exposure , as it spends the longest fourth dimension here in its orbit .
The station weighs about 8,500 kilograms ( 18,800 pounds ) and measures about 10.4 by 3.4 meters ( 34.1 by 11 feet ) . As such , itdoesn’t rank that highlyon objects that have re - entered . An aim of a exchangeable mass even re - enter our ambience over Peru before this year , withlittle fanfare .
withal , there is still some cause for concern if the post is uncontrolled – China has tell they have itunder control , but others mean otherwise .
This means the station could break aside over a populated region , with asmall chanceof debris making it to the undercoat – by some estimates 10 to 40 per centum of it . Some of this textile could also be wild , so it ’s advised that you do n’t go near it if you do fall out to witness any .
Most of its compass takes it over the ocean , though , with the place spend little time over inhabit region . The odds of being gain by dust from Tiangong-1 aresignificantly lessthan your hazard of being strike by lightning .
Still , it ’s certain to garner a bunch of headlines when it finally does total down . Where that will be , well , we wo n’t know for a while .
